Monday 22 January 2018

Catalonia? I am confused

Published on 17/9/17:

This weekend I realised that some of my international friends are confused by what's happening in Spain with Catalonia. I hope this helps:
-Spain is a western democracy and its Catalan citizens vote frequently. In fact, between European, national, regional and municipal elections we have voted 6 times in the last five years.
-In the last regional election, pro-secession parties decided to unite around a single issue- independence- and not only failed to win a majority of thevote, but also lost votes relative to the prior election. Polls, even those paid for by separatists, show support for independence is a minority and in decline.
-Catalonia is not "oppressed". It is one of the most prosperous regions in Spain and its citizens enjoy a high standard of living and one the highest degrees of self-rule of any region in Europe.
-The party that traditionally ran the regional government of Catalonia has, for the last 30 years, used public money to promote a separatist agenda through education and local media and has illegally funded itself with a corrupt scheme where contractors had to pay bribes of at least 3% of any public work.
-The region of Catalonia has never existed as an independent political entity and was a part of the Kingdom of Aragon, which merged dynastically with the Kingdom of Castille in 1492 to create the Spain we know today. There is no "union", as in the UK- Catalonia is to Spain what Rousillon is to France or Cornwall to England.
-Spain is a parliamentary democracy, with a constitution that can be amended. A vote on territorial secession would require such amendment and the support of a qualified majority of Spaniards.
-Not a single country or international organisation, with the exception of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela, has supported this movement. 
So why the fuss? As the economy improves and support for independence wanes, the separatists are afraid of "missing the train" and, breaking Spanish and regional laws, have embarked on a campaign to present the central government as "evil", for not allowing a regional referendum which does not comply with the constitution (overwhelmingly approved throughout Spain, including Catalonia). This noise also conveniently masks regional corruption scandals and sets up the separatists as victims for the next regional election.

Social engineering and the "Programa 2000"

Most foreign observers believe that many people in Catalonia have a deep-rooted historic love of their region which makes them have spontaneous nationalist emotions. I think they have missed the fact that, for over thirty years, a carefully designed social engineering programme has been executed by the nationalist regional governments which have ruled the region for most of that period. These plans were kept mostly in the dark, but already back in 1990 it emerged that a plan named “Programa 2000” had been put in place by the leaders of the main Catalan nationalist party, “Convergencia i Unió”, with the objective of promoting the long-term “recatalanisation” of society. This plan, whose main details are attached here, included taking control of education, regional media, administrative, political and economic institutions and using these to create a “national collective identity”. The success of such a policy has been globally apparent in the events of the last weeks, but for those of us who live here, it has been the case for many years.
One may ask why the central government let this happen, if it was so obvious. In fact, one of the main culprits of our current predicament has been a decentralised political system which encouraged an exchange of votes, whereby the regional nationalists supported whoever was in power in the national government, in exchange for laissez-faire in the regional government. Such short-sightedness has cost us dearly and contributed in no small measure to lead us to where we are today.

The "Tabarnia" construct

Yuval Harari pointed out in “Sapiens” that humans are unique in their ability to create abstract constructs such as religions, corporations and nations.
The region known as Catalonia has recently ceased to exist as a unified construct thanks to the polarisation brought about by separatism. Today, its citizens are completely divided on what “Catalonia” means, as the recent regional elections have demonstrated. There are now two clear constructs. The urban, mostly coastal, areas voted clearly in favour of remaining within Spain (and Europe by extension) and a bilingual, inclusive society; whereas the rural hinterland voted for exactly the opposite. In fact, a new construct called “Tabarnia” (Barcelona + Tarragona) has recently arisen within the former group, claiming their right to independence from the latter. 
One of the delicious ironies of “Tabarnia” is how swiftly the separatists have angrily retorted that Catalonia is indivisible and that only the “Catalan people” as a whole can choose the destiny of Catalonia, using the same arguments they have been quick to dismiss when used by the central government. 
Then again, logic has never been their forte.

La ironía del rescate de los bancos

Para los aficionados a las tertulias financieras:
1. El Estado no ha rescatado al sector bancario- ha rescatado a las antiguas Cajas de Ahorro (a casi todas).
2. La gestión de las Cajas de Ahorro se había poblado de políticos y sus amigos/familiares.
3. Los gestores, no siendo profesionales, decidieron prestar dinero a deudores que no podían pagarlo.
4. Como las inevitables pérdidas superaban el capital que tenían las Cajas, había riesgo de su extensión a los acreedores, que son los depositantes.
5. Para evitarlo, el Estado inyectó capital (directa e indirectamente), asumiendo esa pérdida.
6. Los gestores de estas Cajas fueron despedidos y, en casos de mala fe, juzgados y condenados.
7. Por tanto, los “rescatados” fueron: (i) los deudores que han disfrutado de algo que no pagaron y (ii) los depositantes que, a pesar de lo anterior, han recibido su dinero igual.
8. Una alternativa hubiera sido que muchos perdieran su dinero por haberlo dejado en una entidad donde los gestores lo prestaban sin tener ni idea. A mí me hubiera parecido razonable, pero, en un país en el que, si la nieve resbala, es culpa es de otro, imagínense la que se hubiera montado.
9. Ahora, los propios “rescatados” son los que claman al cielo con el “rescate de la banca”. 
Lo que hay que oír.